How Ruto should play Beijing like a chessboard amid US-China trade war

President William Ruto is set to travel to China for a four-day state visit, marking his second trip to the Asian economic powerhouse in just six months.

The visit comes at a moment of heightened geopolitical competition between China and the United States – a rivalry that African nations, increasingly courted by both, are learning to navigate with growing sophistication.

Ruto will be in Beijing from Tuesday, April 22, to Saturday, April 26, 2025, at the invitation of Chinese President Xi Jinping, according to a statement released by the Chinese Embassy in Nairobi.

“At the invitation of Chinese President Xi Jinping, Kenyan President William Samoei Ruto will pay a state visit to China from April 22 to 26,” the embassy said in the brief statement.

Ruto’s last visit to China was in September 2024, underscoring the deepening ties between Nairobi and Beijing.

But beneath the formalities of state dinners and bilateral meetings, the trip carries broader significance.

As the US and China jockey for influence across the African continent, President Ruto has a rare opportunity to position Kenya not as a passive recipient of global power, but as a nimble and strategic player on the board – a neutral but influential kingmaker in a divided world.

The question is whether Ruto can extract more than infrastructure promises and instead craft deals that empower Kenya’s long-term ambitions in technology, trade, and continental leadership.

With the two superpowers deeply entangled in a trade and tech war (President Donald Trump this month raised baseline tariffs on Chinese imports to 145%. In retaliation, China imposed a 125% tariff on US goods), Ruto can do more than shake hands and sign agreements during his trip to China.

He can play Beijing like a chessboard, moving with precision and purpose, leveraging the friction between Washington and Beijing to carve out a stronger position for Kenya.

Here’s how:

1. Play the neutral kingmaker

Ruto’s China visit is a chance to reiterate Kenya’s diplomatic independence.

Staying neutral, but assertive, allows Kenya to benefit from both East and West.

By not taking sides, Ruto makes Kenya indispensable in a divided world.

Ruto should therefore seek partnership, not allegiance – position Kenya as a strategic partner to all, but beholden to none.

2. Demand value-driven infrastructure deals

While China has historically financed big-ticket infrastructure projects in Kenya, concerns about debt sustainability and transparency remain.

Ruto should insist on securing deals on terms that are favourable to Kenya, insisting on local jobs, skills transfer, and open bidding.

The president should secure funding for projects like the Naivasha-Kisumu SGR revival – but on fair terms, not blank cheques.

3. Use US-China tech war to attract investment

The ongoing tech rivalry between the United States and China is a complex struggle for supremacy in cutting-edge industries such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and biotechnology.

Far beyond traditional trade disputes, this contest involves export restrictions, tariff escalations, and stringent controls on market access.

At its core, the battle is fueled by deep-seated national security anxieties, economic competition, and the race to shape the next frontier of technological innovation.

The US-China tech war has already disrupted global supply chains and is reshaping the architecture of international trade.

As China and the US are aggressively competing for tech dominance, Ruto can capitalise on their rivalry by inviting both to invest in Kenya’s tech sector – training youth, digitising government systems, and building innovation hubs.

The president should pitch Kenya as Africa’s Silicon Savannah and a safe launchpad for continental tech expansion.

4. Seek market for Kenyan exports

China often leads with loans. Ruto should flip the script – seeking market access over loans.

Kenya’s exports (tea, coffee, flowers, textiles, etc) need more space in China’s vast consumer economy.

Ruto should push for direct agricultural trade deals, reduce non-tariff barriers, and secure long-term purchase agreements.

5. Lead the African bloc from Nairobi

China and the US want access to Africa’s 1.4 billion-strong market. Ruto can present Kenya not just as a bilateral partner, but as a voice for African consensus on trade, climate, and investment.

Ruto should champion a pan-African negotiation front in future global summits, starting with this visit to Beijing.

As Ruto prepares for Beijing, the global chessboard is already set.

With China extending one hand and the US watching closely, Kenya’s next move matters.

If Ruto plays it smart, he won’t just secure funding or flashy deals – he could cement Kenya as the continent’s new power broker in a multipolar world.