The Kenya Space Agency (KSA) has issued a public safety advisory regarding the potential re-entry of space debris over Kenyan territory this weekend.
In a statement issued on Friday, April 18, 2025, the agency said that the alert centres on a large, unidentified piece of a rocket body — officially catalogued as NORAD ID 61909/2024-205R — that is projected to pass over East Africa, with Kenya falling directly along its likely flight path.
The debris, believed to be a significant fragment of a rocket launched in 2024, is of unknown mass but substantial size, enough to raise concerns over safety.
“The Kenyo Space Agency wishes to notify members of the general public of a potential re-entry of a space object, NORAD ID 61909/2024-205r, which is significant debris from a rocket body of unknown mass.”
KSA warns that while the likelihood of the debris striking the ground in Kenya is low, the trajectory puts the country under a north-to-south flight corridor extending from the northeastern region to the southeastern border with Tanzania.
“The object could pose a significant risk to life and property along its path owing to its large size,” reads the KSA statement.
The object is predicted to re-enter the Earth’s atmosphere on Saturday, April 19, 2025, at approximately 11:15 PM (EAT). However, this prediction carries a wide margin of error, plus or minus 15 hours and 46 minutes, meaning the re-entry could occur as early as 7:29 AM on Saturday or as late as 3:01 PM on Sunday, 20 April 2025.
This vast time window is not uncommon in such cases, as predicting the exact time and location of uncontrolled space debris re-entry is notoriously difficult. Atmospheric drag, solar activity, and the object’s tumbling motion all affect its descent trajectory.
“The re-entry is predicted to occur on Saturday, 19 April 2025, at 11:15 pm +/- 15 hrs 46 mins. This means the re-entry through the Earth’s atmosphere could occur within the window from Saturday, 19 April 2025, 7:29 am, to Sunday, 20 April 2025, 3:01 pm,” the statement added.
Kenyan airspace
Preliminary models show the potential path slicing through Kenyan airspace diagonally, from the arid northeast near Mandera and Wajir, continuing downwards through Garissa and Kitui, before exiting near the southern border towards Tanzania.
The Kenya Space Agency has included a predictive illustration of the ground track to help Kenyans map out the areas likely to fall beneath the re-entry corridor.
Though it is still unclear whether any parts of the debris will survive atmospheric re-entry to reach the ground, KSA warns that in rare cases, fragments of space objects have been known to impact the Earth’s surface.
Out of an abundance of caution, the agency insisted that members of the public must remain watchful throughout the specified period.
“We advise members of the public to be vigilant and to be on the lookout for any unusual objects flying through or falling from the sky,” the statement adds.
The agency further urged anyone who sees or suspects the landing of space debris not to touch it, as it may contain hazardous materials.
Instead, sightings should be promptly reported to the nearest police station, national government administrative office, or military facility for investigation and appropriate action.
Collaboration
The Kenya Space Agency added that it is working on a major collaboration with global space situational awareness networks to closely monitor the object and work on refining its predictions in real time.
It also reaffirmed its commitment to public safety and transparency, stating it will issue updates should the projected path change or should additional risks be identified.
“The Kenya Space Agency is working with partners to obtain a more precise prediction of the flight path and timeline. While the debris is not expected to drop in Kenya, KSA, out of an abundance of caution, wishes to advise members of the public to be vigilant and to be on the lookout for potential debris dropping from or flying through the sky within the specified period,” the statement added.
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